College Football Team Weightings

The relative value of each program’s offers are determined using players’ commitments and the offers they rejected.  Using this approach, it is assumed that the offers players accepted are more valuable than those they passed up. In essence, program offers are ranked by the players themselves. The steps to arrive at the offer valuations are as follows:

1) For every commitment in the past three years, pairs of “winners” and “losers” are accumulated. The “winner” in each pairing is the team whose offer a player accepted. The “loser” is each of the teams whose offers that player rejected.

2) The pairings in step 1 are used to conduct an Elo ranking. Elo is a system for generating ratings based upon a collection of head-to-head matches. A description of Elo Ratings can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system . The Elo rankings are shown in the “Commit Elo” column in the table below.

3) The ratings in step 2 give an advantage to programs that extend fewer offers, and disadvantage programs that extend more offers. This effect is minimized in this step by calculating the average Elo rating of the teams each program beat out for their commitments. These averages are shown in the “Avg. Elo Beaten” column in the table below.

4) The ratings from step 3 are distributed proportionately over a range from 10 to 100 offer points to arrive at the “Offer Value” column in the table below. In the final valuations, an offer from the highest ranked team is worth 10 times the value of the lowest ranked team.

Offer Value Weightings Updated 7/18/2015

RankTeamCommit EloAvg. Elo BeatenOffer Weighting
1Alabama0.83130.6174100.00
2Texas A&M0.77130.614298.93
3Clemson0.74700.611898.13
4Louisiana State0.83730.610397.64
5Florida State0.69250.608096.87
6Texas1.00000.606996.49
7Auburn0.75170.600994.49
8Georgia0.84370.599493.98
9Southern California0.78620.592491.63
10Mississippi0.58050.589590.66
11Florida0.74360.587890.12
12Tennessee0.65970.587289.90
13Notre Dame0.77850.583488.63
14South Carolina0.74190.582288.23
15UCLA0.70780.580387.58
16Ohio State0.74870.578386.91
17Miami (Florida)0.58260.576186.20
18North Carolina0.61240.571984.77
19Oregon0.77810.570784.38
20Oklahoma0.74060.570384.25
21Michigan0.69040.563381.90
22Baylor0.66570.561881.41
23Stanford0.85050.559280.52
24Arkansas0.60520.548176.83
25Penn State0.70400.546576.28
26Virginia Tech0.72400.544975.74
27Mississippi State0.45230.539173.81
28Maryland0.61030.535272.51
29Oklahoma State0.70020.534672.30
30Missouri0.55540.534572.26
31Texas Tech0.58730.534072.10
32Arizona State0.59750.534072.09
33Texas Christian0.69850.534072.09
34Nebraska0.59580.529170.46
35Virginia0.60860.529070.44
36Washington0.61670.525269.17
37North Carolina State0.54220.521567.92
38Wisconsin0.52040.516766.32
39Vanderbilt0.61120.514365.50
40Michigan State0.65080.513965.39
41West Virginia0.55580.513365.16
42Kentucky0.52980.513265.13
43Houston0.51110.511064.40
44Louisville0.56690.510764.31
45Arizona0.50090.508063.40
46Duke0.58990.503962.03
47California0.56900.501461.19
48Kansas State0.55620.499260.44
49Georgia Tech0.54940.497159.75
50South Florida0.61410.490757.60
51Washington State0.47320.490657.57
52Brigham Young0.60140.490557.55
53Utah0.53830.490057.38
54Oregon State0.55750.489357.13
55Central Florida0.52560.482554.86
56Northwestern0.61290.478753.59
57Kansas0.56690.477053.01
58Temple0.42720.476953.00
59Iowa State0.51360.476252.75
60Boston College0.40930.475152.39
61Pittsburgh0.51020.472051.37
62Syracuse0.52730.470850.96
63Southern Methodist0.60350.467949.99
64Rutgers0.50850.467849.95
65Louisiana Lafayette0.41870.467449.82
66San Jose State0.51110.466649.53
67Boise State0.50640.466149.38
68Wake Forest0.55410.465549.19
69Marshall0.42760.465349.13
70Tulsa0.52260.465349.12
71Rice0.55830.462948.32
72East Carolina0.43230.462548.16
73Illinois0.45700.460847.60
74Indiana0.48300.457646.53
75Fresno State0.49870.456546.18
76Iowa0.50470.455345.78
77San Diego State0.49230.451744.55
78Hawaii0.37650.451444.48
79Cincinnati0.41740.449343.77
80Tulane0.36630.448543.49
81Colorado0.37780.448043.34
82Texas State0.45660.445342.41
83North Texas0.41870.441741.22
84Georgia Southern0.38710.440840.93
85New Mexico State0.33430.438640.17
86Minnesota0.53410.437639.85
87Massachusetts0.32070.432838.25
88Purdue0.46810.429937.26
89Connecticut0.36670.428836.90
90Texas San Antonio0.51280.427136.34
91Louisiana Tech0.42160.425435.76
92Nevada Las Vegas0.43820.425335.71
93Florida Atlantic0.44340.422634.82
94South Alabama0.43270.422234.70
95Western Kentucky0.32670.418333.37
96Southern Mississippi0.32710.416332.70
97Nevada0.37310.414432.08
98Utah State0.41010.411130.98
99Texas El Paso0.36710.410530.79
100Memphis0.38330.408730.16
101Northern Illinois0.48980.408430.07
102New Mexico0.32620.407229.68
103Arkansas State0.35520.402828.21
104Toledo0.36840.402728.16
105Georgia State0.38800.402328.02
106Colorado State0.38670.401727.85
107Akron0.24960.398726.82
108Florida International0.34710.396926.22
109Idaho0.28360.396926.22
110Bowling Green0.30750.395825.87
111Navy0.41140.394925.57
112Alabama Birmingham0.22270.394325.34
113Ohio0.34070.393024.93
114Western Michigan0.34800.391724.49
115Troy0.32790.391124.29
116Old Dominion0.40970.389823.84
117Middle Tennessee State0.37140.389723.82
118Wyoming0.40460.388423.38
119Buffalo0.28190.388323.34
120Kent State0.44590.386922.87
121Army0.27470.382221.32
122Louisiana Monroe0.35900.371117.60
123Air Force0.27680.367016.22
124Eastern Michigan0.28020.365315.66
125Ball State0.27210.363314.97
126Charlotte0.36370.362114.57
127Central Michigan0.28110.355812.47
128Appalachian State0.30200.355412.34
129Miami (Ohio)0.38460.348410.00

2 thoughts on “College Football Team Weightings

  1. Pingback: Michigan State Spartans Football: Revisiting Rank by Offers – Sparty Report

  2. Pingback: Linking Laconically Has a Chip On Its Shoulder – Sparty Report

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *