College Football Team Weightings

The relative value of each program’s offers are determined using players’ commitments and the offers they rejected.  Using this approach, it is assumed that the offers players accepted are more valuable than those they passed up. In essence, program offers are ranked by the players themselves. The steps to arrive at the offer valuations are as follows:

1) For every commitment in the past three years, pairs of “winners” and “losers” are accumulated. The “winner” in each pairing is the team whose offer a player accepted. The “loser” is each of the teams whose offers that player rejected.

2) The pairings in step 1 are used to conduct an Elo ranking. Elo is a system for generating ratings based upon a collection of head-to-head matches. A description of Elo Ratings can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system . The Elo rankings are shown in the “Commit Elo” column in the table below.

3) The ratings in step 2 give an advantage to programs that extend fewer offers, and disadvantage programs that extend more offers. This effect is minimized in this step by calculating the average Elo rating of the teams each program beat out for their commitments. These averages are shown in the “Avg. Elo Beaten” column in the table below.

4) The ratings from step 3 are distributed proportionately over a range from 10 to 100 offer points to arrive at the “Offer Value” column in the table below. In the final valuations, an offer from the highest ranked team is worth 10 times the value of the lowest ranked team.

Offer Value Weightings Updated 2/6/2016

RankTeamCommit EloAvg. Elo BeatenOffer Weighting
1Alabama0.91680.6886100.00
2Clemson0.85690.681497.84
3Louisiana State0.93200.680197.46
4Florida State0.83310.676896.47
5Georgia0.91920.674095.62
6Texas A&M0.87070.673395.42
7Texas1.00000.672895.27
8Mississippi0.65480.669794.35
9Southern California0.88970.669494.26
10Auburn0.86160.669094.13
11Florida0.84170.661691.91
12Tennessee0.71710.652489.14
13UCLA0.74890.649688.30
14Miami (Florida)0.65760.647187.58
15Notre Dame0.88210.645086.93
16Ohio State0.81880.642686.23
17Michigan0.82310.638184.86
18Oklahoma0.83020.636484.36
19South Carolina0.82690.636084.24
20Baylor0.74750.635784.15
21Oregon0.85020.633383.42
22North Carolina0.67330.622780.27
23Stanford0.93580.621279.82
24Mississippi State0.51400.611376.84
25Arkansas0.70610.603174.39
26Washington0.69470.602874.29
27Penn State0.75510.601974.03
28Arizona State0.67520.601273.82
29Oklahoma State0.73470.599073.15
30Texas Christian0.77130.598773.06
31Virginia Tech0.76940.598272.92
32Nebraska0.65760.589170.17
33Missouri0.61440.586669.43
34Texas Tech0.69190.582068.07
35Maryland0.64720.580867.70
36Virginia0.65810.580067.45
37Louisville0.60820.579267.23
38North Carolina State0.61910.576466.38
39Duke0.64530.573765.57
40Michigan State0.71520.572865.29
41Vanderbilt0.67480.569964.44
42Arizona0.59200.568263.92
43Houston0.57010.567963.83
44Kentucky0.58540.567163.59
45West Virginia0.59770.567063.56
46California0.63240.562862.30
47Brigham Young0.72040.562662.26
48Georgia Tech0.62860.558160.90
49Charlotte0.48550.557960.84
50Utah0.61670.556960.54
51South Florida0.69140.556360.35
52Wisconsin0.63430.553459.50
53Oregon State0.59870.550058.47
54Kansas State0.60250.548357.95
55Washington State0.53020.547257.64
56Central Florida0.58920.540955.75
57Pittsburgh0.59580.532453.19
58Temple0.46080.529552.34
59Kansas0.61440.529252.23
60Southern Methodist0.67570.526451.41
61Marshall0.47170.525050.98
62East Carolina0.50780.522050.07
63Northwestern0.68240.516048.27
64Boston College0.46600.515948.26
65Louisiana Lafayette0.47460.515748.18
66Fresno State0.53160.513747.59
67Wake Forest0.59390.512147.12
68Rutgers0.55060.511646.95
69Colorado0.55590.511146.80
70Boise State0.57250.510946.75
71San Jose State0.55250.510846.72
72Iowa State0.59340.510646.67
73Rice0.60820.509046.17
74Indiana0.55350.508245.94
75Tulsa0.55920.505545.12
76Syracuse0.58540.503244.43
77San Diego State0.54540.502244.14
78Illinois0.51120.500243.54
79Hawaii0.41750.496342.39
80South Alabama0.49880.496242.35
81Iowa0.54540.496042.28
82Cincinnati0.45170.493141.41
83Louisiana Tech0.48310.489640.36
84Massachusetts0.36850.489040.20
85Texas State0.47270.488740.09
86Minnesota0.58540.488339.97
87Tulane0.42700.488139.92
88North Texas0.48740.487739.81
89Colorado State0.49930.487339.67
90Texas San Antonio0.59010.483438.52
91Memphis0.47030.479437.32
92Georgia Southern0.45600.479137.22
93Nevada Las Vegas0.46840.478937.15
94Purdue0.54490.476936.57
95Florida Atlantic0.48600.476036.29
96Connecticut0.41700.474135.73
97Southern Mississippi0.32720.473835.63
98New Mexico State0.37660.473035.41
99Texas El Paso0.44170.472435.22
100New Mexico0.37230.468634.09
101Georgia State0.41320.462932.36
102Troy0.43750.461331.89
103Western Kentucky0.37760.460031.50
104Nevada0.41270.457830.84
105Northern Illinois0.53640.454229.77
106Florida International0.38180.450628.69
107Arkansas State0.40230.449028.20
108Utah State0.44130.448628.08
109Toledo0.36760.447527.75
110Western Michigan0.40560.441225.86
111Middle Tennessee State0.39710.440225.56
112Alabama Birmingham0.36900.436824.54
113Akron0.26250.436124.34
114Wyoming0.42800.435524.15
115Idaho0.28770.433623.60
116Bowling Green0.31760.431422.92
117Navy0.41800.428121.95
118Kent State0.44980.427221.66
119Old Dominion0.39320.426321.40
120Ohio0.34090.419819.45
121Buffalo0.33380.414017.72
122Louisiana Monroe0.34950.412717.33
123Eastern Michigan0.30190.409916.48
124Army0.28010.409616.41
125Appalachian State0.34330.404314.80
126Central Michigan0.36570.403814.66
127Ball State0.31620.398913.20
128Air Force0.30580.393911.70
129Miami (Ohio)0.40800.388310.00

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *